We take a look at how Aaron Wise won his first PGA Tour title at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
A breakthrough that was signposted
Maiden wins rarely come from nowhere. The tee to green numbers usually climb for months before the trophy arrives, while the putter lags behind.
When the putting catches up to the ball striking, the win happens.
Why that order matters
Ball striking is the leading indicator. Putting is noisy and mean reverting. A player gaining shots tee to green is improving even while missing cuts.
A player scoring well on putting alone is usually about to regress.
Track the leading indicator
Judge your own progress on tee to green performance over a block of rounds, not on scores.
Scores lie in the short term. Ball striking does not.